Effects of Distance

0.1 At least One Campus in Proximity

Unconditioned

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.339	0.078	-0.496	-0.182	29 %
At least one campus	0.288	0.097	0.092	0.484	32 %

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.635	0.302	-4.231	-3.039	15 %
At least one campus	0.221	0.113	-0.007	0.449	34 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	19 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	54 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.004	64 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.015	0.046	-0.106	0.076	4 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.157	0.034	0.090	0.223	3 %
Indigenous	-0.089	0.184	-0.450	0.272	1 %
gender	-0.226	0.092	-0.408	-0.045	10 %
State:NSW	0.317	0.133	0.057	0.577	0 %
State:VIC	0.685	0.127	0.436	0.935	0 %
State:QLD	0.997	0.128	0.746	1.248	0 %
State:SA	0.618	0.145	0.334	0.903	1 %
State:WA	0.905	0.141	0.628	1.182	0 %
State:NT	0.487	0.189	0.116	0.858	0 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.616	0.297	-4.200	-3.031	12 %
At least one campus	0.195	0.107	-0.018	0.409	22 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.003	20 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	55 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.004	65 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.009	0.046	-0.099	0.081	2 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.213	0.078	0.056	0.369	28 %
Indigenous	-0.118	0.328	-0.770	0.534	24 %
gender	-0.223	0.093	-0.405	-0.041	11 %
State:NSW	0.313	0.133	0.052	0.574	1 %
State:VIC	0.682	0.127	0.433	0.931	0 %
State:QLD	0.997	0.128	0.746	1.248	0 %
State:SA	0.619	0.145	0.334	0.903	1 %
State:WA	0.905	0.141	0.627	1.182	1 %
State:NT	0.480	0.190	0.108	0.852	0 %
At least one campus:Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.076	0.105	-0.286	0.134	29 %
At least one campus:Indigenous	0.081	0.460	-0.858	1.021	40 %

0.2 At Least One Elite Campus in Proximity

Unconditioned

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.214	0.047	-0.307	-0.121	4 %
At least one elite campus	0.210	0.067	0.078	0.342	9 %

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.538	0.284	-4.097	-2.979	11 %
At least one elite campus	0.157	0.076	0.007	0.307	13 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.003	19 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	54 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.004	64 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.015	0.044	-0.101	0.072	1 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.157	0.033	0.092	0.223	2 %
Indigenous	-0.124	0.193	-0.501	0.254	1 %
gender	-0.225	0.092	-0.406	-0.043	10 %
State:NSW	0.327	0.134	0.063	0.590	0 %
State:VIC	0.705	0.128	0.454	0.956	0 %
State:QLD	1.018	0.129	0.765	1.271	0 %
State:SA	0.627	0.145	0.343	0.912	1 %
State:WA	0.941	0.149	0.649	1.234	0 %
State:NT	0.589	0.194	0.208	0.970	1 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.535	0.283	-4.090	-2.979	10 %
At least one elite campus	0.155	0.075	0.008	0.303	8 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.003	19 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	54 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.004	64 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.013	0.045	-0.101	0.074	0 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.163	0.044	0.075	0.251	31 %
Indigenous	-0.110	0.222	-0.545	0.325	4 %
gender	-0.224	0.093	-0.406	-0.042	11 %
State:NSW	0.326	0.136	0.059	0.593	1 %
State:VIC	0.704	0.128	0.452	0.955	0 %
State:QLD	1.017	0.130	0.763	1.272	0 %
State:SA	0.627	0.146	0.341	0.913	1 %
State:WA	0.940	0.150	0.646	1.234	0 %
State:NT	0.587	0.196	0.203	0.971	1 %
At least one elite campus:Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.013	0.084	-0.185	0.158	42 %
At least one elite campus:Indigenous	-0.067	0.373	-0.805	0.671	20 %

0.3 Number of Universities in Proximity

Unconditioned

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.171	0.047	-0.263	-0.080	3 %
Number of Campuses	0.007	0.004	-0.002	0.015	7 %

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.428	0.278	-3.974	-2.881	11 %
Number of Campuses	0.008	0.005	-0.002	0.018	18 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	20 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	54 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.004	64 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.028	0.043	-0.113	0.056	6 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.159	0.033	0.094	0.224	3 %
Indigenous	-0.134	0.193	-0.513	0.245	1 %
gender	-0.230	0.093	-0.412	-0.048	10 %
State:NSW	0.204	0.131	-0.054	0.461	7 %
State:VIC	0.599	0.136	0.333	0.865	4 %
State:QLD	0.929	0.128	0.678	1.179	2 %
State:SA	0.552	0.150	0.258	0.846	2 %
State:WA	0.860	0.140	0.586	1.134	2 %
State:NT	0.476	0.187	0.110	0.842	0 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.427	0.279	-3.976	-2.878	11 %
Number of Campuses	0.008	0.005	-0.002	0.018	17 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	21 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	54 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.004	64 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.027	0.043	-0.111	0.057	4 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.165	0.038	0.090	0.240	12 %
Indigenous	-0.180	0.222	-0.615	0.256	4 %
gender	-0.229	0.093	-0.411	-0.047	11 %
State:NSW	0.208	0.129	-0.046	0.462	6 %
State:VIC	0.602	0.135	0.337	0.867	3 %
State:QLD	0.934	0.128	0.684	1.184	1 %
State:SA	0.555	0.149	0.264	0.847	2 %
State:WA	0.866	0.140	0.592	1.139	1 %
State:NT	0.480	0.186	0.115	0.846	1 %
Number of Campuses:Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.001	0.003	-0.007	0.006	19 %
Number of Campuses:Indigenous	0.020	0.031	-0.041	0.080	16 %

Polynomial: Unconditioned

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.285	0.056	-0.396	-0.174	21 %
Number of Campuses	0.057	0.014	0.028	0.086	37 %
Number of Campuses^2	-0.002	0.000	-0.002	-0.001	30 %

Polynomial: No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.515	0.288	-4.082	-2.947	14 %
Number of Campuses	0.048	0.018	0.011	0.086	52 %
Number of Campuses^2	-0.001	0.000	-0.002	0.000	45 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.003	21 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	54 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.005	66 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.058	0.048	-0.154	0.037	14 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.161	0.034	0.095	0.227	3 %
Indigenous	-0.109	0.192	-0.485	0.266	1 %
gender	-0.229	0.092	-0.409	-0.049	10 %
State:NSW	0.227	0.130	-0.027	0.481	6 %
State:VIC	0.559	0.139	0.287	0.831	7 %
State:QLD	0.907	0.129	0.653	1.160	3 %
State:SA	0.503	0.151	0.206	0.800	4 %
State:WA	0.888	0.137	0.619	1.158	1 %
State:NT	0.513	0.188	0.144	0.881	1 %

Polynomial: Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.505	0.286	-4.069	-2.942	14 %
Number of Campuses	0.048	0.017	0.011	0.084	48 %
Number of Campuses^2	-0.001	0.000	-0.002	0.000	41 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.003	23 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	54 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.005	67 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.054	0.047	-0.147	0.039	10 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.179	0.054	0.071	0.287	35 %
Indigenous	-0.129	0.248	-0.616	0.358	9 %
gender	-0.229	0.092	-0.409	-0.049	11 %
State:NSW	0.226	0.127	-0.024	0.476	6 %
State:VIC	0.559	0.138	0.289	0.829	6 %
State:QLD	0.906	0.129	0.654	1.159	2 %
State:SA	0.504	0.151	0.209	0.799	4 %
State:WA	0.888	0.137	0.620	1.157	1 %
State:NT	0.509	0.188	0.142	0.877	1 %
Number of Campuses:Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.010	0.015	-0.042	0.022	46 %
Number of Campuses:Indigenous	0.005	0.094	-0.186	0.196	34 %
Number of Campuses^2:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.000	0.000	-0.001	0.001	41 %
Number of Campuses^2:Indigenous	0.000	0.003	-0.006	0.007	26 %

0.4 Number of Elite Universities in Proximity

Unconditioned

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.132	0.043	-0.216	-0.047	2 %
Number of Elite Campuses	0.007	0.019	-0.030	0.044	6 %

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.451	0.279	-4.000	-2.903	10 %
Number of Elite Campuses	0.010	0.020	-0.030	0.050	15 %
Math Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.004	20 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	54 %
Science Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	63 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.009	0.041	-0.071	0.089	4 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.156	0.033	0.091	0.222	3 %
Indigenous	-0.137	0.192	-0.513	0.239	1 %
gender	-0.227	0.092	-0.409	-0.046	10 %
State:NSW	0.285	0.130	0.030	0.540	5 %
State:VIC	0.676	0.127	0.427	0.925	1 %
State:QLD	0.984	0.127	0.735	1.232	1 %
State:SA	0.609	0.146	0.323	0.895	1 %
State:WA	0.892	0.142	0.614	1.170	1 %
State:NT	0.504	0.187	0.138	0.870	0 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.450	0.279	-3.998	-2.902	10 %
Number of Elite Campuses	0.009	0.021	-0.032	0.050	15 %
Math Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.004	20 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	54 %
Science Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	63 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.009	0.041	-0.071	0.088	4 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.155	0.036	0.084	0.227	11 %
Indigenous	-0.157	0.207	-0.563	0.248	2 %
gender	-0.227	0.093	-0.409	-0.045	11 %
State:NSW	0.285	0.129	0.032	0.537	4 %
State:VIC	0.675	0.127	0.427	0.924	1 %
State:QLD	0.983	0.126	0.736	1.231	0 %
State:SA	0.608	0.145	0.324	0.892	1 %
State:WA	0.892	0.142	0.614	1.170	1 %
State:NT	0.504	0.187	0.138	0.871	0 %
Number of Elite Campuses:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.001	0.015	-0.028	0.030	21 %
Number of Elite Campuses:Indigenous	0.040	0.110	-0.176	0.257	10 %

Polynomial: Unconditioned

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.188	0.047	-0.280	-0.096	11 %
Number of Elite Campuses	0.135	0.046	0.043	0.226	27 %
Number of Elite Campuses^2	-0.015	0.005	-0.025	-0.004	17 %

Polynomial: No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.475	0.280	-4.025	-2.926	11 %
Number of Elite Campuses	0.070	0.054	-0.040	0.181	38 %
Number of Elite Campuses^2	-0.007	0.006	-0.018	0.004	26 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	20 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	53 %
Science Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	63 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.005	0.045	-0.093	0.084	9 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.156	0.034	0.090	0.222	2 %
Indigenous	-0.134	0.192	-0.510	0.242	1 %
gender	-0.226	0.092	-0.407	-0.046	10 %
State:NSW	0.294	0.128	0.043	0.545	4 %
State:VIC	0.656	0.130	0.400	0.911	3 %
State:QLD	0.978	0.127	0.729	1.228	1 %
State:SA	0.606	0.145	0.322	0.891	1 %
State:WA	0.902	0.141	0.625	1.179	1 %
State:NT	0.528	0.187	0.161	0.895	0 %

Polynomial: Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.475	0.277	-4.020	-2.930	10 %
Number of Elite Campuses	0.067	0.054	-0.042	0.176	35 %
Number of Elite Campuses^2	-0.006	0.006	-0.017	0.005	24 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	20 %
Reading Achievement	0.002	0.001	0.000	0.005	53 %
Science Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	63 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.005	0.045	-0.093	0.083	5 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.152	0.044	0.063	0.240	33 %
Indigenous	-0.191	0.214	-0.611	0.230	4 %
gender	-0.226	0.092	-0.408	-0.044	11 %
State:NSW	0.293	0.127	0.044	0.542	3 %
State:VIC	0.657	0.130	0.402	0.912	2 %
State:QLD	0.977	0.127	0.729	1.225	0 %
State:SA	0.605	0.144	0.322	0.888	1 %
State:WA	0.903	0.141	0.627	1.179	1 %
State:NT	0.530	0.188	0.162	0.898	1 %
Number of Elite Campuses:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.005	0.056	-0.113	0.124	56 %
Number of Elite Campuses:Indigenous	0.280	0.288	-0.295	0.855	26 %
Number of Elite Campuses^2:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.000	0.006	-0.013	0.012	45 %
Number of Elite Campuses^2:Indigenous	-0.036	0.038	-0.111	0.040	23 %

0.5 Log Distance to Nearest University Campus

Unconditioned

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	0.566	0.29	-0.003	1.134	7 %
log distance to campus	-0.074	0.03	-0.133	-0.015	8 %

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.022	0.408	-3.826	-2.218	15 %
log distance to campus	-0.053	0.032	-0.115	0.010	13 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	26 %
Reading Achievement	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.005	63 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.005	67 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.003	0.045	-0.092	0.087	11 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.157	0.035	0.088	0.226	5 %
Indigenous	-0.080	0.188	-0.448	0.288	4 %
gender	-0.230	0.093	-0.413	-0.048	11 %
State:NSW	0.308	0.132	0.048	0.567	1 %
State:VIC	0.673	0.128	0.424	0.923	2 %
State:QLD	0.990	0.130	0.735	1.245	2 %
State:SA	0.630	0.148	0.339	0.921	2 %
State:WA	0.899	0.145	0.615	1.183	2 %
State:NT	0.474	0.188	0.107	0.842	2 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.134	0.413	-3.948	-2.321	13 %
log distance to campus	-0.040	0.033	-0.105	0.024	11 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	26 %
Reading Achievement	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.005	63 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.002	0.005	67 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.004	0.045	-0.085	0.092	11 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.012	0.243	-0.465	0.489	6 %
Indigenous	0.962	0.891	-0.784	2.707	1 %
gender	-0.224	0.093	-0.406	-0.042	11 %
State:NSW	0.310	0.131	0.053	0.568	1 %
State:VIC	0.675	0.127	0.427	0.924	2 %
State:QLD	0.998	0.129	0.745	1.251	2 %
State:SA	0.636	0.148	0.346	0.926	2 %
State:WA	0.913	0.144	0.630	1.196	2 %
State:NT	0.467	0.187	0.101	0.833	2 %
log distance to campus:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.015	0.025	-0.034	0.065	6 %
log distance to campus:Indigenous	-0.097	0.087	-0.268	0.074	2 %

0.6 Log Distance to an Elite University

Unconditioned

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	0.637	0.274	0.100	1.174	3 %
log distance to elite campus	-0.072	0.025	-0.122	-0.022	3 %

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.005	0.463	-3.922	-2.087	20 %
log distance to elite campus	-0.051	0.032	-0.113	0.012	6 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	21 %
Reading Achievement	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.005	56 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.004	62 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.015	0.047	-0.109	0.078	8 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.158	0.035	0.090	0.227	8 %
Indigenous	-0.063	0.192	-0.439	0.312	3 %
gender	-0.233	0.092	-0.413	-0.052	9 %
State:NSW	0.340	0.135	0.074	0.605	3 %
State:VIC	0.709	0.129	0.455	0.962	3 %
State:QLD	1.027	0.128	0.776	1.278	1 %
State:SA	0.634	0.150	0.340	0.928	1 %
State:WA	0.913	0.144	0.631	1.194	2 %
State:NT	0.740	0.231	0.288	1.192	1 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-3.038	0.473	-3.979	-2.098	24 %
log distance to elite campus	-0.047	0.033	-0.111	0.017	11 %
Math Achievement	0.001	0.001	-0.001	0.004	21 %
Reading Achievement	0.003	0.001	0.000	0.005	56 %
Science Achievement	0.002	0.001	-0.001	0.004	63 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	-0.011	0.048	-0.106	0.084	11 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.046	0.247	-0.441	0.533	13 %
Indigenous	0.208	1.090	-1.930	2.346	4 %
gender	-0.231	0.092	-0.412	-0.050	9 %
State:NSW	0.337	0.136	0.071	0.603	2 %
State:VIC	0.707	0.128	0.456	0.958	2 %
State:QLD	1.026	0.128	0.775	1.278	1 %
State:SA	0.635	0.150	0.341	0.928	2 %
State:WA	0.912	0.143	0.631	1.192	2 %
State:NT	0.732	0.229	0.283	1.180	2 %
log distance to elite campus:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.010	0.022	-0.033	0.054	14 %
log distance to elite campus:Indigenous	-0.021	0.092	-0.202	0.159	4 %

Main Analaysis:

Supplementary: Parent Job Prestige

Supplementary: Postcode age 16

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Attendance at University Information Session: Sensitivity Analaysis Using Using Postcodes at Age 16

Blinded For Review

28 July 2015

0.1 At least One Campus in Proximity

Unconditioned

No Interaction

Interaction

0.2 At Least One Elite Campus in Proximity

Unconditioned

No Interaction

Interaction

0.3 Number of Universities in Proximity

Unconditioned

No Interaction

Interaction

Polynomial: Unconditioned

Polynomial: No Interaction

Polynomial: Interaction

0.4 Number of Elite Universities in Proximity

Unconditioned

No Interaction

Interaction

Polynomial: Unconditioned

Polynomial: No Interaction

Polynomial: Interaction

0.5 Log Distance to Nearest University Campus

Unconditioned

No Interaction

Interaction

0.6 Log Distance to an Elite University

Unconditioned

No Interaction

Interaction