Effects of Distance

0.1 At least One Campus in Proximity

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.916	0.230	-1.368	-0.464	6 %
At least one campus	0.285	0.153	-0.015	0.585	10 %
Math Achievement	0.474	0.092	0.287	0.660	38 %
Reading Achievement	0.058	0.124	-0.202	0.319	53 %
Science Achievement	0.095	0.111	-0.127	0.317	30 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.259	0.050	0.161	0.358	1 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.165	0.044	0.080	0.251	7 %
Indigenous	-0.065	0.341	-0.775	0.644	49 %
gender	-0.086	0.085	-0.252	0.081	5 %
cohort	0.078	0.051	-0.023	0.179	13 %
State:NSW	-0.266	0.172	-0.605	0.073	17 %
State:VIC	-0.212	0.174	-0.554	0.130	9 %
State:QLD	-0.621	0.210	-1.032	-0.209	8 %
State:SA	-0.254	0.180	-0.617	0.110	33 %
State:WA	-0.066	0.173	-0.406	0.275	14 %
State:NT	-0.764	0.299	-1.353	-0.175	13 %
University Expectations	0.239	0.097	0.047	0.432	18 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.899	0.225	-1.340	-0.457	5 %
At least one campus	0.274	0.145	-0.011	0.559	7 %
Math Achievement	0.471	0.092	0.283	0.658	39 %
Reading Achievement	0.061	0.125	-0.203	0.325	55 %
Science Achievement	0.097	0.110	-0.124	0.318	29 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.264	0.050	0.167	0.362	1 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.352	0.164	0.031	0.673	2 %
Indigenous	0.318	1.299	-2.585	3.220	70 %
gender	-0.086	0.086	-0.254	0.082	6 %
cohort	0.076	0.051	-0.025	0.177	13 %
State:NSW	-0.271	0.172	-0.610	0.069	16 %
State:VIC	-0.219	0.174	-0.561	0.124	9 %
State:QLD	-0.622	0.209	-1.033	-0.211	8 %
State:SA	-0.258	0.181	-0.622	0.106	33 %
State:WA	-0.072	0.173	-0.414	0.269	14 %
State:NT	-0.768	0.298	-1.354	-0.182	12 %
University Expectations	0.239	0.098	0.045	0.433	19 %
At least one campus:Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.215	0.169	-0.547	0.117	1 %
At least one campus:Indigenous	-0.543	1.449	-3.763	2.678	68 %

0.2 At Least One Elite Campus in Proximity

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-1.083	0.201	-1.478	-0.689	9 %
At least one elite campus	0.632	0.118	0.396	0.868	27 %
Math Achievement	0.460	0.095	0.267	0.654	40 %
Reading Achievement	0.063	0.121	-0.189	0.315	49 %
Science Achievement	0.113	0.112	-0.112	0.338	30 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.158	0.053	0.054	0.263	8 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.191	0.045	0.103	0.279	9 %
Indigenous	-0.003	0.341	-0.711	0.706	48 %
gender	-0.090	0.085	-0.257	0.078	6 %
cohort	0.070	0.052	-0.032	0.173	10 %
State:NSW	-0.241	0.171	-0.579	0.097	16 %
State:VIC	-0.202	0.173	-0.543	0.138	8 %
State:QLD	-0.539	0.217	-0.964	-0.113	6 %
State:SA	-0.284	0.182	-0.651	0.082	32 %
State:WA	0.111	0.183	-0.248	0.471	13 %
State:NT	-0.341	0.325	-0.980	0.297	12 %
University Expectations	0.211	0.096	0.021	0.400	19 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-1.069	0.201	-1.464	-0.674	10 %
At least one elite campus	0.630	0.118	0.395	0.864	24 %
Math Achievement	0.457	0.095	0.263	0.652	40 %
Reading Achievement	0.063	0.121	-0.189	0.315	50 %
Science Achievement	0.117	0.112	-0.106	0.341	29 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.168	0.052	0.066	0.271	6 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.304	0.091	0.123	0.484	17 %
Indigenous	0.257	0.538	-0.943	1.456	69 %
gender	-0.089	0.086	-0.257	0.079	6 %
cohort	0.069	0.052	-0.033	0.172	10 %
State:NSW	-0.260	0.170	-0.596	0.076	17 %
State:VIC	-0.220	0.173	-0.560	0.119	8 %
State:QLD	-0.550	0.217	-0.976	-0.124	6 %
State:SA	-0.291	0.182	-0.657	0.076	32 %
State:WA	0.096	0.181	-0.261	0.453	13 %
State:NT	-0.353	0.329	-1.001	0.295	13 %
University Expectations	0.211	0.097	0.019	0.403	20 %
At least one elite campus:Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.176	0.103	-0.379	0.027	16 %
At least one elite campus:Indigenous	-0.586	0.989	-2.875	1.702	77 %

0.3 Number of Universities in Proximity

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.657	0.164	-0.981	-0.334	13 %
Number of Campuses	0.028	0.006	0.016	0.039	23 %
Math Achievement	0.469	0.093	0.280	0.658	39 %
Reading Achievement	0.060	0.120	-0.189	0.310	49 %
Science Achievement	0.114	0.111	-0.108	0.336	30 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.137	0.055	0.028	0.246	10 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.196	0.045	0.108	0.284	10 %
Indigenous	-0.042	0.342	-0.752	0.668	48 %
gender	-0.105	0.082	-0.266	0.055	6 %
cohort	0.065	0.052	-0.037	0.166	11 %
State:NSW	-0.725	0.184	-1.090	-0.359	25 %
State:VIC	-0.525	0.188	-0.895	-0.155	14 %
State:QLD	-0.824	0.209	-1.235	-0.412	11 %
State:SA	-0.450	0.180	-0.815	-0.085	35 %
State:WA	-0.134	0.171	-0.471	0.203	14 %
State:NT	-0.809	0.297	-1.394	-0.224	13 %
University Expectations	0.237	0.096	0.048	0.427	16 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.676	0.165	-1.001	-0.352	13 %
Number of Campuses	0.027	0.006	0.016	0.039	20 %
Math Achievement	0.467	0.094	0.277	0.658	39 %
Reading Achievement	0.064	0.120	-0.188	0.316	51 %
Science Achievement	0.118	0.112	-0.107	0.342	31 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.145	0.056	0.036	0.254	8 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.258	0.062	0.135	0.382	17 %
Indigenous	-0.025	0.551	-1.281	1.230	74 %
gender	-0.105	0.083	-0.267	0.057	6 %
cohort	0.067	0.052	-0.036	0.170	12 %
State:NSW	-0.695	0.184	-1.061	-0.330	24 %
State:VIC	-0.496	0.187	-0.865	-0.127	13 %
State:QLD	-0.796	0.210	-1.208	-0.384	11 %
State:SA	-0.417	0.181	-0.782	-0.052	34 %
State:WA	-0.115	0.172	-0.454	0.224	13 %
State:NT	-0.779	0.302	-1.375	-0.183	15 %
University Expectations	0.231	0.097	0.039	0.424	17 %
Number of Campuses:Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.006	0.003	-0.013	0.001	17 %
Number of Campuses:Indigenous	-0.003	0.045	-0.106	0.101	77 %

No Interaction: Polynomial

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.660	0.176	-1.007	-0.314	14 %
Number of Campuses	0.029	0.019	-0.010	0.068	32 %
Number of Campuses^2	0.000	0.001	-0.001	0.001	31 %
Math Achievement	0.469	0.093	0.278	0.659	40 %
Reading Achievement	0.060	0.120	-0.189	0.310	49 %
Science Achievement	0.114	0.112	-0.111	0.338	30 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.136	0.055	0.027	0.244	11 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.196	0.045	0.108	0.284	10 %
Indigenous	-0.043	0.342	-0.754	0.669	48 %
gender	-0.105	0.083	-0.268	0.058	6 %
cohort	0.064	0.052	-0.039	0.168	12 %
State:NSW	-0.724	0.183	-1.089	-0.359	25 %
State:VIC	-0.527	0.191	-0.904	-0.151	14 %
State:QLD	-0.825	0.212	-1.242	-0.408	13 %
State:SA	-0.453	0.187	-0.831	-0.074	37 %
State:WA	-0.133	0.173	-0.473	0.206	14 %
State:NT	-0.808	0.299	-1.397	-0.219	13 %
University Expectations	0.237	0.096	0.047	0.427	17 %

Interaction: Polynomial

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.682	0.176	-1.029	-0.336	13 %
Number of Campuses	0.029	0.019	-0.008	0.067	28 %
Number of Campuses^2	0.000	0.001	-0.001	0.001	26 %
Math Achievement	0.468	0.094	0.277	0.660	39 %
Reading Achievement	0.064	0.120	-0.186	0.315	50 %
Science Achievement	0.117	0.112	-0.108	0.343	31 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.141	0.055	0.033	0.249	11 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.238	0.087	0.067	0.409	3 %
Indigenous	0.027	0.730	-1.694	1.748	80 %
gender	-0.106	0.083	-0.269	0.057	6 %
cohort	0.068	0.053	-0.037	0.172	13 %
State:NSW	-0.698	0.183	-1.062	-0.334	24 %
State:VIC	-0.499	0.191	-0.875	-0.123	14 %
State:QLD	-0.803	0.209	-1.214	-0.392	12 %
State:SA	-0.424	0.186	-0.802	-0.045	37 %
State:WA	-0.115	0.173	-0.456	0.227	13 %
State:NT	-0.779	0.305	-1.380	-0.178	14 %
University Expectations	0.232	0.098	0.039	0.426	19 %
Number of Campuses:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.000	0.017	-0.033	0.033	11 %
Number of Campuses:Indigenous	-0.036	0.168	-0.408	0.337	68 %
Number of Campuses^2:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.000	0.000	-0.001	0.001	15 %
Number of Campuses^2:Indigenous	0.001	0.005	-0.009	0.011	61 %

0.4 Number of Elite Universities in Proximity

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.653	0.167	-0.982	-0.324	14 %
Number of Elite Campuses	0.134	0.026	0.082	0.187	38 %
Math Achievement	0.465	0.093	0.275	0.655	40 %
Reading Achievement	0.074	0.117	-0.168	0.316	46 %
Science Achievement	0.107	0.111	-0.115	0.329	29 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.132	0.057	0.018	0.245	17 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.205	0.045	0.116	0.294	14 %
Indigenous	-0.009	0.345	-0.725	0.708	48 %
gender	-0.117	0.081	-0.276	0.042	5 %
cohort	0.070	0.051	-0.031	0.170	12 %
State:NSW	-0.792	0.182	-1.155	-0.429	26 %
State:VIC	-0.420	0.173	-0.759	-0.080	13 %
State:QLD	-0.797	0.206	-1.202	-0.393	10 %
State:SA	-0.369	0.178	-0.727	-0.010	33 %
State:WA	-0.120	0.170	-0.454	0.214	13 %
State:NT	-0.757	0.297	-1.341	-0.173	12 %
University Expectations	0.227	0.098	0.034	0.421	20 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.671	0.167	-1.000	-0.342	15 %
Number of Elite Campuses	0.131	0.025	0.080	0.182	35 %
Math Achievement	0.466	0.094	0.275	0.657	39 %
Reading Achievement	0.079	0.118	-0.166	0.325	48 %
Science Achievement	0.110	0.112	-0.114	0.334	30 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.138	0.057	0.025	0.250	14 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.264	0.059	0.145	0.382	26 %
Indigenous	0.048	0.497	-1.063	1.158	70 %
gender	-0.117	0.082	-0.277	0.044	5 %
cohort	0.073	0.052	-0.029	0.175	13 %
State:NSW	-0.771	0.181	-1.131	-0.410	25 %
State:VIC	-0.394	0.171	-0.731	-0.056	12 %
State:QLD	-0.776	0.206	-1.180	-0.371	10 %
State:SA	-0.341	0.179	-0.702	0.019	34 %
State:WA	-0.104	0.170	-0.439	0.231	13 %
State:NT	-0.733	0.302	-1.328	-0.137	14 %
University Expectations	0.223	0.099	0.026	0.420	21 %
Number of Elite Campuses:Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.027	0.014	-0.054	0.000	28 %
Number of Elite Campuses:Indigenous	-0.039	0.221	-0.571	0.493	83 %

No Interaction: Polynomial

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.702	0.177	-1.050	-0.354	12 %
Number of Elite Campuses	0.232	0.079	0.076	0.388	22 %
Number of Elite Campuses^2	-0.010	0.008	-0.025	0.004	19 %
Math Achievement	0.463	0.094	0.270	0.655	40 %
Reading Achievement	0.072	0.117	-0.171	0.315	46 %
Science Achievement	0.109	0.111	-0.114	0.333	29 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.105	0.060	-0.014	0.225	17 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.208	0.045	0.119	0.298	13 %
Indigenous	-0.022	0.348	-0.747	0.703	49 %
gender	-0.113	0.083	-0.275	0.050	5 %
cohort	0.066	0.052	-0.036	0.167	12 %
State:NSW	-0.784	0.181	-1.145	-0.422	26 %
State:VIC	-0.482	0.178	-0.834	-0.131	15 %
State:QLD	-0.821	0.206	-1.226	-0.415	11 %
State:SA	-0.385	0.179	-0.745	-0.024	34 %
State:WA	-0.103	0.172	-0.441	0.235	12 %
State:NT	-0.712	0.303	-1.308	-0.116	10 %
University Expectations	0.222	0.097	0.030	0.415	21 %

Interaction: Polyinomal

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.726	0.178	-1.076	-0.376	13 %
Number of Elite Campuses	0.238	0.078	0.082	0.393	22 %
Number of Elite Campuses^2	-0.011	0.007	-0.026	0.003	18 %
Math Achievement	0.462	0.095	0.267	0.656	40 %
Reading Achievement	0.076	0.119	-0.171	0.324	49 %
Science Achievement	0.114	0.113	-0.112	0.340	30 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.110	0.060	-0.008	0.229	15 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.286	0.075	0.139	0.433	14 %
Indigenous	0.130	0.509	-0.987	1.248	65 %
gender	-0.111	0.083	-0.275	0.053	5 %
cohort	0.069	0.052	-0.034	0.171	13 %
State:NSW	-0.761	0.180	-1.119	-0.403	24 %
State:VIC	-0.463	0.177	-0.812	-0.113	15 %
State:QLD	-0.800	0.204	-1.201	-0.398	11 %
State:SA	-0.357	0.179	-0.719	0.005	35 %
State:WA	-0.085	0.172	-0.424	0.253	12 %
State:NT	-0.684	0.309	-1.292	-0.076	12 %
University Expectations	0.218	0.099	0.021	0.415	23 %
Number of Elite Campuses:Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.052	0.055	-0.160	0.057	10 %
Number of Elite Campuses:Indigenous	-0.233	0.627	-1.597	1.131	63 %
Number of Elite Campuses^2:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.002	0.006	-0.009	0.013	12 %
Number of Elite Campuses^2:Indigenous	0.023	0.087	-0.173	0.219	70 %

0.5 Log Distance to Any University

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.089	0.349	-0.777	0.598	13 %
log distance to campus	-0.062	0.036	-0.132	0.008	7 %
Math Achievement	0.479	0.090	0.296	0.662	37 %
Reading Achievement	0.061	0.123	-0.197	0.319	52 %
Science Achievement	0.088	0.110	-0.132	0.308	30 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.266	0.050	0.169	0.363	1 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.164	0.043	0.079	0.249	8 %
Indigenous	-0.047	0.341	-0.756	0.661	48 %
gender	-0.086	0.084	-0.251	0.079	5 %
cohort	0.089	0.051	-0.012	0.190	10 %
State:NSW	-0.296	0.171	-0.633	0.042	16 %
State:VIC	-0.222	0.175	-0.566	0.122	8 %
State:QLD	-0.633	0.209	-1.044	-0.222	8 %
State:SA	-0.268	0.179	-0.628	0.091	33 %
State:WA	-0.078	0.172	-0.416	0.260	13 %
State:NT	-0.794	0.296	-1.376	-0.212	12 %
University Expectations	0.238	0.097	0.046	0.430	17 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	-0.140	0.350	-0.826	0.547	8 %
log distance to campus	-0.057	0.036	-0.127	0.013	2 %
Math Achievement	0.477	0.090	0.294	0.660	37 %
Reading Achievement	0.065	0.124	-0.197	0.326	54 %
Science Achievement	0.089	0.110	-0.131	0.310	30 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.271	0.050	0.174	0.369	1 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.289	0.315	-0.908	0.329	6 %
Indigenous	-1.097	3.159	-8.161	5.967	70 %
gender	-0.084	0.085	-0.251	0.082	5 %
cohort	0.087	0.051	-0.014	0.188	10 %
State:NSW	-0.294	0.171	-0.631	0.044	17 %
State:VIC	-0.223	0.175	-0.568	0.121	9 %
State:QLD	-0.626	0.209	-1.037	-0.215	8 %
State:SA	-0.255	0.179	-0.616	0.105	33 %
State:WA	-0.076	0.172	-0.415	0.263	13 %
State:NT	-0.802	0.295	-1.381	-0.222	12 %
University Expectations	0.237	0.098	0.044	0.430	17 %
log distance to campus:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.050	0.036	-0.020	0.120	7 %
log distance to campus:Indigenous	0.105	0.342	-0.665	0.875	71 %

0.6 Log Distance to an Elite University

No Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	1.542	0.448	0.639	2.446	33 %
log distance to elite campus	-0.218	0.041	-0.301	-0.136	24 %
Math Achievement	0.479	0.094	0.287	0.670	41 %
Reading Achievement	0.066	0.121	-0.186	0.319	48 %
Science Achievement	0.105	0.114	-0.124	0.334	32 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.136	0.052	0.033	0.239	7 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.190	0.044	0.103	0.277	8 %
Indigenous	0.067	0.341	-0.645	0.779	49 %
gender	-0.075	0.086	-0.243	0.094	5 %
cohort	0.104	0.052	0.002	0.205	10 %
State:NSW	-0.258	0.170	-0.593	0.078	18 %
State:VIC	-0.241	0.175	-0.584	0.103	9 %
State:QLD	-0.546	0.215	-0.968	-0.125	8 %
State:SA	-0.339	0.182	-0.705	0.028	34 %
State:WA	-0.044	0.174	-0.387	0.298	13 %
State:NT	0.244	0.379	-0.509	0.996	21 %
University Expectations	0.190	0.096	0.000	0.380	16 %

Interaction

	log odds	se	(lower	upper)	missInfo
(Intercept)	1.506	0.457	0.591	2.420	29 %
log distance to elite campus	-0.213	0.042	-0.297	-0.130	20 %
Math Achievement	0.477	0.094	0.285	0.670	41 %
Reading Achievement	0.069	0.123	-0.187	0.325	50 %
Science Achievement	0.106	0.113	-0.121	0.334	31 %
Index of Educational and Occupational Level	0.148	0.051	0.049	0.248	8 %
Economic Social Cultural Scale	-0.546	0.333	-1.201	0.108	7 %
Indigenous	-0.810	2.733	-6.866	5.246	68 %
gender	-0.072	0.086	-0.241	0.098	5 %
cohort	0.101	0.051	0.000	0.202	10 %
State:NSW	-0.273	0.168	-0.605	0.058	17 %
State:VIC	-0.250	0.175	-0.593	0.093	9 %
State:QLD	-0.552	0.213	-0.971	-0.134	8 %
State:SA	-0.331	0.181	-0.697	0.036	35 %
State:WA	-0.057	0.172	-0.397	0.283	13 %
State:NT	0.220	0.391	-0.559	0.999	25 %
University Expectations	0.187	0.098	-0.007	0.381	17 %
log distance to elite campus:Economic Social Cultural Scale	0.074	0.035	0.006	0.142	8 %
log distance to elite campus:Indigenous	0.079	0.259	-0.500	0.658	70 %

Main Analaysis:

Supplementary: Parent Job Prestige

Supplementary: Postcode age 16

Home

Entry into an Elite University: Sensitivity Analaysis Using Using Postcodes at Age 16

Blinded For Review

28 July 2015

0.1 At least One Campus in Proximity

No Interaction

Interaction

0.2 At Least One Elite Campus in Proximity

No Interaction

Interaction

0.3 Number of Universities in Proximity

No Interaction

Interaction

No Interaction: Polynomial

Interaction: Polynomial

0.4 Number of Elite Universities in Proximity

No Interaction

Interaction

No Interaction: Polynomial

Interaction: Polyinomal

0.5 Log Distance to Any University

No Interaction

Interaction

0.6 Log Distance to an Elite University

No Interaction

Interaction